SPIR Global's 12-month baseline target price is $22 (approx. 33,550 KRW), and the investment rating is Hold. Strengths include FY2026 revenue guidance of $7.5–8.5M (approx. 114.4–129.6 billion KRW), securing 76% contracts, and a net cash conversion of approximately 124.7 billion KRW; however, a high valuation of 11 times revenue and continued operating losses coexist as burdens.
Analysis Date: 2026-06-13 · Applied Exchange Rate: 1 USD = 1,525 KRW (Applied equally to the entire text) · This article is an analysis for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation.
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- Key Summary of Spire Global SPIR Stock Price Outlook
- What kind of company is Spire Global (SPIR)?
- Key terms to know before analysis
- Spire Global Recent Performance Analysis
- Spire Global Fair Stock Analysis
- Spire Global vs. Competitor Comparison
- Spire Global Growth Outlook and Key Drivers
- Spire Global 12-Month Target Price Scenario
- Key Risks When Investing in Spire Global
- Spire Global Investment Opinion Conclusion
- 5 Frequently Asked Questions about Spire Global
Key Summary of Spire Global SPIR Stock Price Outlook
Spire Global's 12-month baseline target price is $22 (approx. 33,550 won).
The investment recommendation is Hold.
The key rationale is that the transition to net cash following the sale of the offshore business, guidance for revenue growth of over 501 TP3T by FY2026, and a high valuation of 11 times revenue coexist simultaneously.
The current price is $18.23 (approx. 27,800 won), which is in the upper-middle range of the 52-week range $6.60 (approx. 10,065 won) to $25.93 (approx. 39,543 won).
After surging to $25.93 by the end of May 2026, it is showing a highly volatile trend while undergoing a correction of about 30%.
The consensus of four Wall Street analysts is Strong Buy, with an average target price of approximately $20.88 (approx. 31,840 won), a high of $24 (approx. 36,600 won), and a low of $15 (approx. 22,875 won).
What kind of company is Spire Global (SPIR)?
Spire Global (NYSE: SPIR) is a space data platform company that provides data collected from its own low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation on a subscription basis.
Founded in 2012 and headquartered in Vienna, Virginia, USA, it has approximately 372 regular employees.
The business is broadly divided into four pillars: Space Reconnaissance, which deals with signal intelligence for defense, intelligence, and security; Aviation, which tracks satellite-based aircraft; Weather and Climate, which provides weather and climate data based on radio occultation and microwave sounding; and Space Services, which provides satellites as a service.
Customers span various industries including government, logistics, insurance, energy, agriculture, and finance, and the key appeal lies in the fact that they directly build and operate satellite infrastructure while converting data into recurring subscription revenue.
In 2025, the company significantly improved its financial structure by selling its marine data (Maritime) business to Kpler to secure cash and repay large debts.
Key terms to know before analysis
- Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite constellation — A constellation that collects data by deploying multiple small satellites in low Earth orbit. It is a core infrastructure asset of Spire.
- Radio Occultation — It is a technique that calculates weather data, such as temperature and humidity, by measuring the refraction of GPS signals as they pass through the atmosphere.
- RFGL (Radio Frequency Geolocation) — It is a defense and intelligence service that detects and tracks the location of wireless signals on the ground using satellites.
- Subscription Revenue — Revenue from selling data and insights through recurring contracts, offering high visibility.
- Adjusted EBITDA — An operating profitability indicator excluding one-time and non-cash items, examining the trend of cash generation in deficit companies.
Spire Global Recent Performance Analysis
Revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 (closed March 2026) was 15.8M (approx. 24.1 billion KRW), exceeding the upper end of the guidance.
Due to the sale of the offshore business, it decreased by approximately 341 TP3T compared to the same period last year, but grew by approximately 131 TP3T on a basis excluding the offshore business.
The net loss for the same quarter was $25.8M (approx. 39.3 billion won), and the net loss per share (EPS) was -$0.78 (approx. -1,190 won).
Adjusted EBITDA was -$10.2M (approximately 15.6 billion KRW), which also exceeded the upper end of the guidance and showed a trend of narrowing losses. Detailed figures are... Earnings report (8-K) filed with the SECYou can check it at.
During the quarter, 19 satellites were put into orbit in two launch campaigns, and five new RFGL orders were secured from U.S. customers and three new overseas RFGL customers were secured.
The financial structure has also improved significantly. As of the end of 2025, cash and short-term investments amounted to approximately 1 TP4T81.8M (approximately 124.7 billion KRW), while total liabilities amounted to only approximately 1 TP4T13.4M (approximately 20.4 billion KRW), effectively transitioning to a net cash position.
Equity, which was -$11.7M at the end of 2024, turned positive at approximately $112.9M at the end of 2025, and additional equity raising of approximately $65.5M (about 99.9 billion won) was completed during the first quarter.
| item | Figure (USD) | Korean Won Conversion |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Sales | $15.8M | Approximately 24.1 billion won |
| Q1 2026 Net Loss | -$25.8M | Approximately 39.3 billion won |
| Q1 2026 EPS | -$0.78 | Approximately -1,190 won |
| Adjusted EBITDA | -$10.2M | Approximately 15.6 billion won |
| Cash + Short-term investment | $81.8M | Approximately 124.7 billion won |
| Total debt | $13.4M | Approximately 20.4 billion won |
Spire Global Fair Stock Analysis
Spire's market capitalization is approximately 1 TP4T705M (approximately 1.0751 trillion KRW), and its price-to-sales ratio (P/S) over the past 12 months is approximately 11.1 times.
The forward P/S based on the median FY2026 guidance (approx. 1 TP/4 T/80 M) is about 8.8 times, which is slightly lower but still in a premium range exceeding the average of revenue growth stocks.
The price-to-book ratio (P/B) is approximately 5.3 times, and the forward EPS is -$0.25, indicating that operating losses are expected to continue.
It should be noted that the reason trailing EPS $1.59 is shown as a surplus is due to a one-time gain from the sale of the offshore business.
In other words, the profitability of the operation itself has not yet been secured, and the valuation should be viewed as essentially reflecting expectations for future subscription revenue growth.
Spire Global vs. Competitor Comparison
Spire competes with or is adjacent to several listed companies in the field of satellite data and Earth observation.
In Earth observation image data Planet Labs (PL), the No. 1 Earth observation satellite data companyThe business model partially overlaps with...
In the defense and intelligence data domain Black Sky (BKSY), a beneficiary of real-time satellite information and defense dataIt targets similar government demand.
In terms of satellite communication infrastructure, it has stable IoT and government revenue. Satellite communications company Iridium (IRDM), and in the field of satellite internet Satellite Internet provider VSATThis becomes the subject of comparison.
Spire's differentiator lies in its diversified data revenue sources across weather, aviation, defense, and space services, as well as its establishment of a low-marginal-cost subscription model through the direct manufacturing and operation of satellites.
Spire Global Growth Outlook and Key Drivers
The company maintains a revenue guidance of $7.5–85M (approximately 114.4–129.6 billion KRW) for FY2026, which corresponds to growth of more than 50% year-over-year based on the median value.
With approximately 761 TP3T of the 2026 revenue guidance already secured in contract, revenue visibility is relatively high.
An additional driver is the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) bidding pipeline; the company stated that the volume of NOAA-related bids in 2026 exceeds $150M (approximately 228.8 billion KRW), with more than half in the active proposal stage. Details of the guidance are provided by the company. Q1 Earnings Press ReleaseIt is organized in.
In Europe, a strategy is being pursued to expand sovereign space initiatives for European defense, weather, and security by signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Germany's Schaeffler AG for the joint development of space hardware and satellite platforms. The background of this cooperation is Wall Street Journal reportIt was covered in.
In May 2026, the company expanded its weather intelligence platform for energy trading, 'Cirrus,' and unveiled a 45-day AI-based prediction model, and its stock price surged immediately after the announcement.
Spire Global 12-Month Target Price Scenario
Based on the current price of $18.23 (approx. 27,800 won), we present three scenarios for a one-year target price.
| scenario | Target Price (USD) | Korean Won Conversion | Compared to the current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $27 | Approximately 41,175 won | Approx. +48% |
| Base | $22 | Approximately 33,550 won | Approx. +21% |
| Bear | $13 | Approximately 19,825 won | Approx. -29% |
The bullish scenario is when premium multiples are maintained due to exceeding FY2026 guidance, converting NOAA bids into actual orders, and the full-scale commencement of cooperation with Schaeffler.
The base scenario aligns with the analyst interim target price (approx. 1 TP 4 T 22), assuming a path where growth in the 501 TP 3T range is achieved as guided, but the operating loss is gradually reduced.
The bearish scenario reflects a case where the stock price is revalued due to a combination of delays in NOAA orders, further equity dilution, and compression of high valuation multiples.
Key Risks When Investing in Spire Global
- Continued operating deficit — With forward EPS of -$0.25, the timing of the turnaround to profitability on an operating basis is uncertain.
- High valuation A P/S of around 11 times already reflects significant growth expectations, so the potential for a large correction is likely in the event of a shortfall in earnings.
- High volatility — With a beta of about 2.49, the stock price fluctuation is large enough to correct by about 301 TP3T from $25.93 to $18 in one month.
- Government dependency — Due to high dependence on government bids from agencies such as NOAA and the Ministry of National Defense, it is sensitive to fluctuations in budget and contract schedules.
- Share dilution — Repeated additional equity financing to cover deficits may dilute the value per share.
Spire Global Investment Opinion Conclusion
Spire Global is a company that has recovered its financial strength through the sale of its offshore business and possesses a clear growth narrative with FY2026 growth guidance of over 501 TP3T, secured 761 TP3T contracts, and NOAA and European pipelines.
However, the high valuation of approximately 11 times revenue, persistent operating losses, and high volatility with a beta of 2.49 are burdensome for short-term entry.
Compared to the current price of $18.23 (approx. 27,800 won), the expected return of the baseline target price of $22 (approx. 33,550 won) is approximately +21%. While there is room for upside, a staggered or wait-and-see approach is reasonable considering the volatility.
Accordingly, we present a Hold (Neutral) investment opinion in this analysis. While the growth story is attractive, valuation and profitability must be proven first.
5 Frequently Asked Questions about Spire Global
Q1. What is the 12-month target price for Spire Global (SPIR)?
Based on the base scenario, the level is $22 (approx. 33,550 won), suggesting a bullish range of $27 (approx. 41,175 won) and a bearish range of $13 (approx. 19,825 won). The base expected return relative to the current price is approximately +21%, placing it in the Hold zone.
Q2. What kind of business does Spire Global do?
It is a space data company that provides data collected from its own low-orbit satellite constellation on a subscription basis. Revenue is diversified across four pillars: defense signal intelligence, aircraft tracking, weather and climate, and satellite services.
Q3. How have Spire Global's recent performances been?
Revenue for the first quarter of FY2026 was 15.8M (approx. 24.1 billion KRW), exceeding the upper end of the guidance, while the net loss was 25.8M (approx. 39.3 billion KRW). Revenue excluding the offshore business grew by approximately 131T.
Q4. What are the key risks of Spire Global's stock price?
High valuation of approximately 11 times revenue, continued operating losses, high volatility with a beta of 2.49, dependence on government bids, and the possibility of further equity dilution are key risks.
Q5. Is Spire Global financially stable?
By repaying debt through the sale of the offshore business in 2025, the company transitioned to a net cash position with approximately 1 TP4T81.8M (approx. 124.7 billion KRW) in cash and approximately 1 TP4T13.4M (approx. 20.4 billion KRW) in total debt. However, operating cash flow remains in deficit.
Sources
- Spire Global Form 8-K (SEC, FY2026)
- Spire Global Q1 2026 Earnings Press Release (IR)
- Schaeffler·Spire European Space Infrastructure Cooperation (WSJ)
※ This article is an analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investment decisions and responsibilities rest solely with the investor.
※ This article was written based on publicly available data with the assistance of AI research tools, and the content was reviewed by the author prior to publication. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation.