Globalstar (GSAT) is a U.S. satellite communications company that Amazon has agreed to acquire for $90 per share. The current price of $81.16 is in an arbitrage zone, approximately 111 TP3T lower than the acquisition price, with Direct-to-Direct (D2D) cooperation with Apple and Amazon, as well as the likelihood of the deal closing, being key variables. This report summarizes recent earnings, acquisition terms, and 12-month target price scenarios.
Analysis Date: June 15, 2026 · Applied Exchange Rate: 1 USD = 1,520 KRW (All KRW conversions in this article were calculated using this exchange rate) · This article is an analysis for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation.
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- Key Summary of Globalstar GSAT Stock Price Outlook
- What kind of company is Global Star (GSAT)?
- Key Terms You Need to Know Before Analyzing Global Stars
- Global Star Recent Quarterly Earnings Analysis
- Key Points of Amazon’s GlobalStar Acquisition Deal
- Global Star Fair Stock Price Analysis
- Global Star 12-Month Target Price Scenario
- Globalstar vs. Satellite Communication Competitor Comparison
- Key Risks When Investing in Global Star
- Global Star Investment Opinion Conclusion
- 5 Frequently Asked Questions about the Global Star GSAT
Key Summary of Globalstar GSAT Stock Price Outlook
Global Star (GSAT)'s 12-month baseline target price is $89 (approx. 135,280 won).
The investment opinion is Hold (Neutral).
The key basis is an arbitrage structure in which the upper limit of the stock price is effectively fixed due to Amazon's acquisition agreement of $1 per share.
The current price of $81.16 (approx. 123,363 won) is about 10.9% lower than the acquisition offer price of $90 (approx. 136,800 won).
This price difference (spread) represents the potential profit if the deal closes successfully, and at the same time, it is the market's price tag for the risk of the deal falling through.
If the deal falls through, the stock price could return to the level before the merger announcement, around $58~62, resulting in an asymmetric structure with limited upside and steep downside.
What kind of company is Global Star (GSAT)?
Globalstar is a Mobile Satellite Service (MSS) provider headquartered in Covington, Louisiana, USA, established in 1993.
It provides voice and data communication, commercial IoT for asset tracking, and personal satellite safety terminals such as the SPOT series via a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite network.
With approximately 477 employees, it is a relatively small organization among satellite communication companies, but its biggest asset is that it holds a key frequency license for the Big LEO band.
The decisive factor that brought Globalstar into the market's attention was its collaboration with Apple. Globalstar is a satellite network operator that supports the satellite emergency SOS and messaging functions of iPhone 14 and later models and the Apple Watch Ultra.
As Apple prepaid network construction costs and invested equity for a certain period, Globalstar secured stable wholesale capacity revenue.
Key Terms You Need to Know Before Analyzing Global Stars
- MSS (Mobile Satellite Service)A service that transmits and receives voice and data directly via satellite without ground base stations. This is Globalstar's core business.
- D2D (Direct-to-Device): A technology that allows a standard smartphone to communicate directly with a satellite without separate equipment. This is the core goal of Apple Satellite SOS and Amazon Leo.
- Wholesale capacity salesRevenue generated by leasing entire satellite network capacity to major clients like Apple. This is the core driving force behind Globalstar's growth.
- Big LEO band: The core frequency band used for satellite communications. The FCC reaffirmed Globalstar's exclusive operating rights.
- Arbitrage spread: The difference between the acquisition offer price and the current stock price. It is the price tag for profit and failure risk upon deal closing.
Global Star Recent Quarterly Earnings Analysis
Globalstar recorded sales of 170.1M (approx. 106.6 billion KRW) in the first quarter of 2026, growing by approximately 171T3T compared to the same period last year.
The main driver of growth is the increase in wholesale capacity service revenue for Apple. This 10-Q quarterly report filed with the SECIt is the figure listed in.
However, despite external growth, the net loss for the first quarter continued to be a deficit, with an earnings per share of approximately -17.4M (approx. -26.4 billion KRW) and -10.16.
This demonstrates the structural characteristics of the satellite communications business, where satellite network depreciation and high interest costs erode operating profit.
| item | Figure (USD) | KRW Conversion (1 USD = 1,520 KRW) |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Sales | $70.1M | Approximately 106.6 billion won |
| Q1 2025 Sales | $60.0M | Approximately 91.2 billion won |
| Last 12 Months Sales (TTM) | $283M | Approximately 430.2 billion won |
| Q1 2026 Net Profit/Loss | -$17.4M | Approximately -26.4 billion won |
| Recent 12-month EBITDA | $109M | Approximately 165.7 billion won |
| Cash equivalents | $358M | Approximately 544.2 billion won |
| Total debt | $538M | Approximately 817.8 billion won |
Although the gross profit margin is high at approximately 641 TP3T, the operating profit margin is at the 161 TP3T level, and free cash flow is negative due to satellite investment.
In other words, Globalstar is a company with steadily increasing revenue but tight financial capacity to build a next-generation satellite solely through its own cash generation.
Key Points of Amazon’s GlobalStar Acquisition Deal
Global Star's investment decision for 2026 will be determined by the Amazon acquisition deal.
Amazon announced a definitive merger agreement to acquire Globalstar in April 2026 for approximately 1.16 billion (approximately 17.632 trillion won). This Amazon's announcement on satellite business expansionIt is confirmed in.
Shareholders can choose between 1 TP4T90 (approx. 136,800 won) in cash or 0.3210 shares of Amazon stock (valuation cap 1 TP4T90) per share held.
The cash option is prorated up to a maximum of 401 TP3T of the total issued shares, and if Globalstar fails to meet specific operating targets, a downward adjustment of up to 1 TP4T110M (approximately 167.2 billion KRW) may be applied.
The reason Amazon is acquiring Globalstar is clear. It is to add D2D services by combining Globalstar’s satellite, frequency licenses, and operational know-how with the Amazon Leo low-orbit satellite network.
In the same context, Amazon also decided to acquire Apple's stake in GlobalStar, and the structure is being reorganized so that Amazon Leo supports the iPhone and Apple Watch's satellite emergency SOS.
Once the deal closes, GlobalStar stock will be delisted, and shareholders will receive $90 or equivalent Amazon stock. Therefore, investing in GlobalStar at this point is effectively akin to merger arbitrage.
Global Star Fair Stock Price Analysis
The fair value of typical satellite communications stocks is determined by the price-to-sales ratio (P/S) and EBITDA multiples.
Globalstar's market capitalization is approximately 10.45 billion (about 15.884 trillion won), and it is trading at a P/S of about 36.9 times based on its recent 12-month revenue of 283 million (about 430.2 billion won).
This represents an extremely high valuation relative to the scale of sales, a level that is difficult to justify based on fundamentals alone.
However, in the M&A phase, this multiple becomes meaningless. This is because the fair value of the stock is determined not by fundamentals, but by the acquisition price Amazon has agreed to pay, $90.
In fact, the average target price of Wall Street analysts is 1 TP/4 T/90 (approximately 136,800 won), and with a Buy rating, virtually all analysts are converging on the acquisition price. This demonstrates that Globalstar's stock price is no longer driven by earnings but by the probability of the deal closing.
Global Star 12-Month Target Price Scenario
It is reasonable to classify Global Star's target price based on scenarios depending on whether the deal is closed, rather than fundamental scenarios.
| scenario | Target price | Korean Won Conversion | Compared to the current price | premise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $90 | Approximately 136,800 won | Approx. +10.9% | Deal ended safely, no nerfs |
| Base | $89 | Approximately 135,280 won | Approx. +9.7% | Deal closed + partial downward adjustments and time value reflection |
| Bear | $60 | Approximately 91,200 won | Approx. -26.1% | Deal falls through due to regulations and antitrust issues, returns to standalone enterprise value |
The bullish scenario is when the merger concludes as scheduled and shareholders receive the full $90.
The base scenario is that the deal is closed, but the actual take-home price remains at the $89 level, taking into account a downward adjustment of up to $110M or the time value of the time it takes to close.
A bearish scenario occurs when the deal falls through due to antitrust review or shareholder opposition, and the stock price could return to the trading range of $58~62 prior to the merger announcement.
Assuming a deal closing probability of approximately 751 TP3T, the weighted expected value remains almost flat relative to the current price. Due to the asymmetric structure with an upside of +111 TP3T and a downside of -261 TP3T, it is difficult to view the risk as not being significant relative to the expected return.
Globalstar vs. Satellite Communication Competitor Comparison
To understand Globalstar, it is useful to compare it with other stocks in the same satellite communications and space sector.
The most direct comparison is with the company operating a 66-unit LEO satellite network and positioned in Apple's D2D competitive landscape. Stable satellite communications company Iridium (IRDM)Iridium stands in contrast to Globalstar in that it generates a profit through its own IoT and government revenue without any acquisition events.
Aiming for a rebound amidst satellite internet competition VSAT, a satellite communications stockAlthough its defense and space order backlog is a strength, its net debt burden is heavier than that of Globalstar.
Operating low-cost Earth observation satellites Small satellite company Satello Logic (SATL)Ina Space Data Platform Space data stock Spire Global (SPIR)Although their business areas differ, they all share the commonality of having high valuations relative to revenue and financing risks.
The decisive difference is that while most of them bet on independent growth stories, Global Star is an arbitrage stock with an upside cap set by its acquisition price.
Key Risks When Investing in Global Star
- Risk of deal falling throughIf the merger falls through due to antitrust reviews, delays in regulatory approvals, or shareholder opposition, the stock price could plummet to around $58~62. This is the single biggest risk.
- Downward adjustment clauseIf Globalstar fails to achieve its operational goals, the acquisition price could be reduced by up to 1 TP4T110M (approximately 167.2 billion KRW).
- Proportional allocation uncertaintyCash options are limited to a limit of 401 TP3T, so even if you want cash, you may receive some in Amazon stock, the value of which is linked to Amazon's stock price.
- Limited upside: Since the acquisition price is fixed at $90, there is almost no room for further upside even if the deal proceeds smoothly.
- Weak independent fundamentalsDue to persistent losses and a high valuation of 36.9 times P/S, it will be difficult for fundamentals to support the stock price if deals disappear.
Global Star Investment Opinion Conclusion
The investment rating for Global Star is Hold (Neutral).
The key point is that Amazon's acquisition agreement of $1 per share acts as an upper price level rather than a solid lower price level.
It is an asymmetric structure where a profit of approximately 111 TP3T is possible if the deal closes at the current price of 1 TP4T81.16, but a loss risk of around -261 TP3T is expected if the deal falls through.
For professional investors familiar with merger arbitrage and capable of tolerating risk, it can be considered a low-risk, low-return short-term position.
On the other hand, since the structure limits upside for general investors and places them solely on deal risk, it is more rational to observe the progress of the deal rather than making a new entry.
5 Frequently Asked Questions about the Global Star GSAT
Q1. What is the 12-month target price for Globalstar (GSAT)?
Based on the base scenario, the target price is $89 (approx. 135,280 won), with a bullish range of $90 (approx. 136,800 won) and a bearish range of $60 (approx. 91,200 won). As the target price is effectively fixed at $90, the investment opinion is set to Hold.
Q2. How much is Amazon acquiring Globalstar for?
Amazon has agreed to acquire Globalstar for approximately 1.116 billion (about 17.632 trillion won), and shareholders can choose between 1.90 in cash (about 136,800 won) per share or 0.3210 shares of Amazon stock at a value of 1.90. The cash option is distributed proportionally to 401 shares of total stock.
Q3. What is the relationship between Globalstar and Apple?
GlobalStar has been supporting the satellite emergency SOS function for iPhone 14 and later models and the Apple Watch. With this deal, Amazon acquires Apple's stake in GlobalStar, and the structure is reorganized so that Amazon's Leo satellite network will handle satellite services for Apple devices in the future.
Q4. What is Globalstar's biggest investment risk?
The biggest risk is the deal falling through. If the merger collapses due to delays in antitrust reviews or regulatory approvals, the stock price could return to levels seen before the merger announcement, around $58–62 (approximately 88,160–94,240 won). It is an asymmetrical structure where the upside is limited and the downside is steep, as the acquisition price acts as a barrier to the upper limit.
Q5. Should I buy Globalstar stock now?
The current price of $81.16 (approximately 123,363 KRW) is an arbitrage zone approximately 11% lower than the acquisition price of $90. While this may serve as a short-term low-risk position for professional investors familiar with merger arbitrage, it is reasonable for general investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach, as the structure involves bearing only deal risk with limited upside potential.
Sources
- Globalstar, Inc. Form 10-Q (FY2026 Q1) — SEC
- Amazon to Acquire Globalstar for $11.6 Billion — Wedbush
- Assessing Globalstar (GSAT) Valuation — Yahoo Finance
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The investor bears full responsibility for all investment decisions and their consequences.
※ This content is based on publicly available data, written with the help of AI tools, and reviewed by the author. It is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation.