Base exchange rate: 1 USD = 1,478 KRW (as of 2026-04-22)
Tesla (Tesla, Inc., NASDAQ: TSLA) will announce its Q1 2026 earnings after the market closes on April 22, 2026 (local time). Wall Street forecasts revenue of approximately $21.9 billion (approx. 32.3682 trillion KRW) and EPS of 0.37, and today's earnings announcement is being watched as a key event that will determine the short-term direction of the stock price. The current stock price stands at 386.42 (approx. 571,113 KRW), remaining at a level approximately 221 TP3T lower than its 52-week high (498.83).
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Executive Summary
| item | detail |
|---|---|
| Current stock price | $386.42 (approx. 571,113 won) |
| Market capitalization | $1.45 trillion (approx. 2,143 trillion won) |
| Investment Opinion | HOLD |
| 12-month baseline target price | $413 (approx. 610,414 won) |
| Expected rate of return | +6.9% |
| 52-week range | $244.43 ~ $498.83 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy (Buy, 2.4/5, 41 people) |
Tesla is transforming into a diversified technology company that extends beyond electric vehicles to encompass energy storage, autonomous driving software (FSD), robotaxi services, and humanoid robots (Optimus). While slowing EV demand and margin pressure persist in the short term, the monetization of robotaxi services and the global expansion of FSD are key drivers of mid-to-long-term growth.
Financial Performance Analysis – Recent 4 Quarters (TTM)
Quarterly sales trends
| branch | Sales (USD M) | Converted to Korean Won | Gross Profit Margin | Operating profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 (March) | $19,335M | Approximately 28 trillion 577.1 billion won | 16.3% | $493M |
| Q2 2025 (June) | $22,496M | Approximately 33 trillion 249.5 billion won | 17.2% | $923M |
| Q3 2025 (September) | $28,095M | Approximately 41 trillion 524.4 billion won | 18.0% | $1,862M |
| Q4 2025 (December) | $24,901M | Approximately 36 trillion 803.7 billion won | 20.1% | $1,571M |
| TTM Total | $94,827M | Approximately 140 trillion 154.3 billion won | 18.0% | $4,849M |
Q1 2025 saw a temporary slump due to the Model Y production line transition, followed by a strong rebound in Q3 2025. Although Q4 2025 saw a slight QoQ decline in revenue due to seasonal factors, the gross profit margin reached 20.11 TP3T, the highest level in the last four quarters, confirming a trend of margin improvement.
Quarterly Net Profit and EPS Trends
| branch | Net Profit (USD M) | Converted to Korean Won | Diluted EPS | Compared to the previous quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $409M | Approximately 604.5 billion won | $0.12 | – |
| Q2 2025 | $1,172M | Approximately 1.7322 trillion won | $0.33 | +175% |
| Q3 2025 | $1,373M | Approximately 2.0294 trillion won | $0.39 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $840M | Approximately 1.2415 trillion won | $0.24 | -39% |
| TTM Total | $3,794M | Approximately 5.6076 trillion won | $1.08 | – |
The sharp decline in Q4 2025 net income compared to Q3 is a result of reflecting restructuring costs ($162M) and other one-time losses. On a normalized income basis, it is slightly higher at $957M.
Quarterly Trend of Free Cash Flow (FCF)
| branch | Operating cash flow | Capital expenditure (CapEx) | Free Cash Flow (FCF) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $2,156M (approx. 3.1867 trillion won) | -$1,492M | $664M (approx. 981.4 billion KRW) |
| Q2 2025 | $2,540M (approx. 3.7541 trillion won) | -$2,394M | $146M (approx. 215.8 billion KRW) |
| Q3 2025 | $6,238M (approx. 9.225 trillion won) | -$2,248M | $3,990M (approx. 5.8972 trillion won) |
| Q4 2025 | $3,813M (approx. 5.6408 trillion won) | -$2,393M | $1,420M (approx. 2.0988 trillion won) |
| TTM Total | $14,747M (approx. 21 trillion 795.1 billion KRW) | -$8,527M | $6,220M (approx. 9.1932 trillion won) |
TTM FCF stands at 6,220M (approximately 9.1932 trillion KRW), demonstrating robust cash generation capabilities. The Q3 2025 FCF of 3,990M was impressive, and CapEx is maintaining a quarterly average of 2.1–2.4B. Tesla is expected to further expand CapEx in 2026 to invest in AI and robotaxi infrastructure.
Financial soundness (as of December 31, 2025)
| Financial indicators | Amount (USD) | Converted to Korean Won |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and short-term investment | $44,059M | Approximately 65 trillion 119.2 billion won |
| Total debt | $14,719M | Approximately 21 trillion 752.7 billion won |
| Net cash position | $29,340M | Approximately 43 trillion 344.6 billion won |
| Equity | $82,137M | Approximately 121 trillion 398.5 billion won |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio (D/E) | 17.76% | Very low (excellent) |
| Current ratio | 2.164 | Good |
| Current ratio | 1.538 | Good |
Cash reserves exceeding $44B and a low debt ratio indicate that Tesla's financial health is very sound. This solid financial foundation enables aggressive investment in next-generation businesses such as robotaxi, Optimus, and Cybercab.
Q1 2026 Earnings Preview (Scheduled for release today)
| item | Market expectations | Same period of the previous year (Q1 2025) | YoY change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vehicle delivery | 365,645 units (consensus) | 336,681 units | +8.6% |
| Actual delivery (announced) | 358,023 units | 336,681 units | +6.3% |
| sales | $21.9B (approx. 32 trillion 368.2 billion KRW) | $19.3B | +13.5% |
| Diluted EPS | $0.37 | $0.12 | +208% |
| Gross Profit Margin | ~17-18% expected | 16.3% | Improvement Outlook |
It is important to note that the high YoY growth rate in Q1 2026 is largely due to the unusually low base effect in Q1 2025. To confirm substantial growth momentum, we must focus on RoboTaxi revenue, energy storage margins, and guidance on FSD subscriber numbers. Located at the intersection of AI infrastructure and autonomous driving. Palantir (PLTR) AnalysisPlease also check this.
Valuation Analysis
| Valuation Indicators | TSLA current | S&P 500 average | judgment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing P/E | 357.8x | 22x | Overvalued |
| Forward P/E | 140.4x | 20x | AI Premium Reflected |
| P/S | 15.3x | 2.5x | Overvalued |
| P/B | 17.6x | 4x | Overvalued |
| EV/EBITDA | 135.3x | 14x | Highly rated |
| PEG | 5.75x | 1.5x | Overvalued |
While Tesla's current valuation is extremely overvalued when evaluated as a pure EV company, it reflects its future value as an AI platform company encompassing RoboTaxi, FSD, and Optimus. Applying an AI premium of 150x P/E to the forward EPS of $2.75 results in a fair share price of approximately $412.50 (about 609,885 KRW), which is close to the current price. This suggests that the current share price is generally at an appropriate level under the baseline scenario.
Growth Prospects and Key Catalysts
Short-term catalyst (2026)
- Expansion of Robo-taxi servicesDriverless robotaxi service launched in Dallas and Houston, Texas. Monetization visibility increases with planned expansion to additional cities by the end of 2026.
- Cybercab production beginsMass production of dedicated robotaxis is scheduled to begin in April 2026. Initial production volume will determine the speed of service expansion.
- FSD v14.3 releasedResponse speed improved by 20%, and technical completeness enhanced through the redesign of the MLIR-based AI compiler. The European FSD approval process is also underway.
- Optimus Robot CommercializationStrengthening marketing, such as the Boston Marathon exhibition. Mass production schedules for external sales could act as a catalyst for the stock price.
Mid-to-long-term growth estimates
| item | 2025 Earnings (TTM) | 2026 forecast | growth rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual sales | $94.8B (approx. 140 trillion won) | ~$103B (approx. 152 trillion won) | +8.6% |
| Forward EPS | $1.08 (TTM) | $2.75 (Forward) | +155% |
| Vehicle delivery | Estimated at approximately 1.8 million units | ~1.9 million units expected | +5~8% |
1-Year Target Price Scenario
| scenario | Target Price (USD) | Converted to Korean Won | Expected rate of return | Probability | Key assumptions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $496 | Approximately 733,088 won | +28.4% | 25% | Early monetization of RoboTaxi, global approval of FSD, large-scale launch of Cybercab |
| Base | $413 | Approximately 610,414 won | +6.9% | 50% | Forward EPS $2.75 × P/E 150x, incremental robotaxi expansion |
| Bear | $330 | Approximately 487,740 won | -14.6% | 25% | Deepening slowdown in EV demand, intensifying competition from China, and delays in FSD regulations |
Calculation of expected rate of return: (413×0.5 + 496×0.25 + 330×0.25 – 386.42) / 386.42 = +6.9%
Based on the consensus of 41 analysts, the average target price is $415.81 (approx. 614,927 KRW) and the median is $441.00 (approx. 651,798 KRW), suggesting moderate upside potential. If you are looking for an analysis of similar high-valuation growth stocks benefiting from the defense and AI sectors, RTX Corporation Analysis ReportPlease also refer to this.
Recent Major Trends
- Q1 2026 Achieved 358,023 vehicle deliveries: Increased by 6.31 TP3T compared to the same period last year (336,681 units). However, fell short of the consensus (365,645 units) by approximately 7,600 units, negatively impacting investor sentiment.
- Robo-taxi expands to Dallas and Houston, Texas: Refining the monetization roadmap by expanding driverless robotaxi services to additional cities in April 2026.
- FSD v14.3 Update (April 2026): Response speed improved by 20%, technical advantage strengthened through rewriting MLIR-based AI compiler
- Optimus Boston Marathon ExhibitionWhile Chinese competitors demonstrate their technology through race participation, Tesla uses it for marketing purposes, raising questions about the commercialization timeline.
- India Launches 6-Seater Model YLaunching at 620,000 Rupees (approx. $66,324) to strengthen targeting emerging markets
- CATL Announces 6.5-Minute Full Charge BatteryChinese battery technology competition is a threat that could erode Tesla's battery technology advantage
Risk factors
- Extremely high valuationA forward P/E of 140x is justifiable only if all positive scenarios materialize. Risk of a sharp stock price correction in the event of disappointing earnings or guidance.
- China's EV and Battery Competition IntensifiesBYD's price competitiveness, CATL's battery innovation, and the global market encroachment of rapidly emerging Chinese EV brands such as NIO and Xpeng
- Elon Musk's concentrated risk: Concerns over damage to brand image due to DOGE activities and reduced focus on Tesla's management. A boycott is becoming visible in some markets.
- FSD · Robo-taxi delay historyMusk's history of repeated delays in autonomous driving predictions has a negative impact on investor confidence.
- Trade Tariffs and Macroeconomic RisksUS-China trade conflict and concerns over a consumption slump could lead to weakened EV demand.
Investment Opinion: HOLD
Tesla is a leader in the EV market and a potential game changer in the fields of AI and autonomous driving. While positive factors such as the expansion of robotaxi services, advancements in FSD technology, and growth in energy storage are evident, the current forward P/E of 140x already reflects a significant portion of these expectations. The expected return of +6.91 TP3T falls within the HOLD range (0–151 TP3T).
| item | detail |
|---|---|
| Investment Opinion | HOLD |
| Level of certainty | Medium |
| Investment period | 12 months |
| Weight proposal | Retain existing holdings; split purchases are recommended for new purchases. |
| Buy conversion conditions | If it falls below $330, or when RoboTaxi earnings guidance is specified |
| Conditions for consideration of sale | When $496 or higher is reached, or when major FSD/Robo-taxi delays are announced |
In today's Q1 2026 earnings announcement, key factors to check include ① whether the gross profit margin for automobiles recovers, ② guidance on Robo-Taxi and Energy revenue, and ③ whether the CyberCap production schedule is specified. This analysis is for reference purposes only and should not be used for investment decisions; final investment decisions should be made at the individual's discretion.
This report is an analysis based on data as of April 22, 2026, and is intended for informational purposes only, not as investment advice. Stock investments carry the risk of principal loss.
※ This content is based on publicly available data, written with the help of AI tools, and reviewed by the author. It is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation.