NuScale Power (SMR) is the only Small Modular Reactor (SMR) company to have received design certification from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). It is a highly volatile stock that has entered the 12-month baseline target price ($14) and Hold investment rating zone, driven by power demand from AI data centers and the ENTRA1 and Romania RoPower projects.
Reference exchange rate: 1 USD = 1,538 KRW (As of 2026-06-23; all KRW conversions in this text were calculated using this exchange rate). Analysis date: 2026-06-23. This article is an analysis for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation.
index
- Key Summary of NuScale Power SMR Stock Price Outlook
- What kind of company is NuScale Power (SMR)?
- Key Terms You Need to Know Before Analyzing NuScale Power
- NuScale Power Recent Q4 Earnings Analysis
- NuScale Power Fair Value Analysis (DCF/Multiple)
- NuScale Power vs. Competitor Comparison
- NuScale Power Growth Outlook and Key Drivers
- NuScale Power 12-Month Target Price Scenario
- NewsScale Power Recent Major Issues
- Key Risks When Investing in NuScale Power
- NuScale Power Investment Opinion Conclusion
- 5 Frequently Asked Questions about NuScale Power
Key Summary of NuScale Power SMR Stock Price Outlook
The 12-month baseline target price for NuScale Power (SMR) is $14 (approximately 21,532 won).
The investment recommendation is Hold.
The key basis is the coexistence of the rarity of being the only SMR company with NRC design certification and a long lead time in which sales will not begin in earnest until the early 2030s.
The current price is $11.24 (approx. 17,287 won), which is down about 80% from the 52-week high of $57.42 (approx. 88,312 won).
The market capitalization is approximately 1 TP4T 3.89B (approximately 5.9828 trillion won), and the beta is 2.22, which is more than twice as volatile as the market average.
- Investment Point 1 As the only SMR company to have secured both U.S. NRC design certification and Standard Design Approval (SDA), it clearly holds a first-mover advantage in terms of regulatory entry barriers.
- Investment Point 2 — ENTRA1·TVA’s plan to deploy up to 6GW and Romania’s RoPower 6-module project align with the demand for power in AI data centers.
- Investment Point 3 With the first module scheduled for commercial operation in 2033, revenue visibility is distant, and quarterly operating losses and repeated capital dilution weigh down the valuation.
What kind of company is NuScale Power (SMR)?
NuScale Power is a small modular reactor (SMR) technology company founded in 2007 and headquartered in Corvallis, Oregon, USA.
The core product is the 'NuScale Power Module (NPM),' a single module of a 77 MWe light water reactor (pressurized light water type), which is combined to form a VOYGR power plant (4, 6, or 12 modules, up to 924 MWe).
The revenue model lies not in direct power generation business, but in SMR design and technology licensing, module supply, regulatory licensing support, and the sale of operation and maintenance services.
Starting in 2024, the company transitioned to a division of labor structure with ENTRA1 Energy as the exclusive global commercialization partner, where ENTRA1 handles project development and financing, and NuScale handles the supply of technology and modules.
In the main competitive landscape, it is compared to fast reactor-based OKLO, nuclear fuel enrichment supplier Centrus Energy (LEU), and naval and commercial reactor component company BWX Technologies (BWXT). NuScale has a regulatory distinguishing feature in that it holds NRC design certification.
Key Terms You Need to Know Before Analyzing NuScale Power
- SMR (Small Modular Reactor)
- Small Modular Reactor. It is a small reactor (typically 300 MWe or less) manufactured in a factory as modules and assembled on-site. It is the very subject of NuScale's business.
- NPM (NuScale Power Module)
- NuScale Power Module. It is a single module of a 77 MWe light water reactor, and multiple modules are combined to form a power plant.
- VOYGR
- NuScale's power plant product name. It is a multi-module plant that expands up to 924 MWe with 4, 6, or 12 module configurations.
- NRC SDA (Standard Design Approval)
- Standard Design Approval by the U.S. NuScale. NuScale obtained SDA for the 77 MWe design in May 2025.
- ENTRA1 Energy
- NuScale's exclusive global commercialization partner. Pursuing up to 6GW deployment with the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) in the United States.
- FID (Final Investment Decision)
- Final investment decision. This stage confirms the execution of project funds and marks a turning point for the full-scale launch of SMR sales.
- Up-C Structure / Non-controlling Interest (NCI)
- NuScale has an Up-C governance structure in which it holds a separate stake in NuScale LLC. As a result, its GAAP net income fluctuates significantly every quarter due to the remeasurement of non-controlling interests.
NuScale Power Recent Q4 Earnings Analysis
NuScale is effectively a company in the pre-revenue generation stage. Its quarterly revenue fluctuates significantly depending on whether milestones are recognized.
| branch | sales | Net Profit/Loss (Attribution) | Earnings per share (EPS) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $13.4M (approx. 20.6 billion KRW) | -$14.0M | -$0.11 |
| Q2 2025 | $8.1M (approx. 12.4 billion KRW) | -$17.6M | -$0.13 |
| Q3 2025 | $8.2M (approx. 12.7 billion KRW) | -$273.3M | -$1.85 |
| Q4 2025 | $1.8M (approx. 2.8 billion KRW) | -$50.8M | n/a |
| Q1 2026 | $0.565M (approx. 870 million KRW) | -$44.0M | -$0.14 |
Sales in the first quarter of 2026 were 0.565 million (approx. 870 million KRW), a sharp decline of approximately 961 million (13.4 million KRW) compared to the same period of the previous year.
The main reason for the sharp decline in sales is that the RoPower licensing work in Romania and Fluor's FEED (Front-End Engineering Design) services were completed at the end of 2025.
The operating loss for the first quarter was 57.5M (approx. 88.4 billion won), and the attributable net loss was 44.0M (approx. 67.7 billion won). First quarter earnings filing (8-K) submitted to the SEC It is the standard.
The surge in net loss to $273.3M in the third quarter of 2025 was due to the remeasurement of non-controlling interest (NCI) in the Up-C governance structure, rather than a deterioration in operations. Therefore, it is more accurate to view the actual rate of cash depletion based on operating losses.
Cash outflows from operating activities in the first quarter amounted to $314.7M (approx. 484 billion KRW). Of this, $259.9M (approx. 399.7 billion KRW) was a one-time outflow resulting from milestone payments related to ENTRA1.
Financial soundness itself is robust. As of the end of the quarter, cash and cash equivalents (cash + short-term investments) amounted to $890.1M (approx. 1.369 trillion won), total liquidity including long-term investments was approximately $1.0B (approx. 1.538 trillion won), and total liabilities were at the level of $5.7M, making it virtually debt-free.
However, it should be noted that a significant portion of the cash secured came from the issuance of new shares. The number of outstanding shares nearly doubled in one year, rising from approximately 168 million shares in the third quarter of 2025 to approximately 324 million shares in the first quarter of 2026.
NuScale Power Fair Value Analysis (DCF/Multiple)
NuScale is a stock that is difficult to evaluate using traditional valuation indicators.
With virtually no revenue, the price-to-sales ratio (P/S) exceeds 200 times, and the TTM net loss per share is -$2.20 (approx. -3,384 won), so the P/E ratio is meaningless. The price-to-book ratio (P/B) is approximately 3.1 times (net asset value per share $3.67, approx. 5,645 won).
Since free cash flow is negative and the first module sales do not occur until the early 2030s, a standard 5-year DCF is not very meaningful. The following assumptions are for reference to examine long-term option values, with the first positive (+) cash flow occurring between 2031 and 2033.
| DCF assumption items | Applied value | reason |
|---|---|---|
| Discount rate (WACC) | 12.5% | Beta 2.22 · Reflects high cost of capital at the pre-investment stage |
| End-of-life value growth rate (g) | 3.0% | Long-term GDP + Inflation |
| forecast period | 10 years | Visibility until the first module operation (2033) |
| Base FCF (Current TTM) | -$162M (approx. -249.2 billion KRW) | Assuming it is currently negative (-) and turns positive after 2031 |
| Bull FCF assumption | Multiple FIDs confirmed early | ENTRA1 and RoPower proceed simultaneously |
| Bear FCF assumption | FID Delay and Continued Capital Increase | Macro, Interest Rate, and Policy Shocks |
Due to these limitations, it is reasonable to view fair value as a range rather than a single figure. This analysis suggests a fair value range of $9 to $18 (approx. 13,842 KRW to approximately 27,684 KRW).
This Wall Street analyst consensusIt also largely overlaps with the average target price of approximately $15.36 and the median of $14.5. In other words, the current stock price is located at the lower end of the consensus fair range.
The valuation is assessed as 'Fairly Valued.' It is neither undervalued based on earnings nor clearly overvalued, and the stock price is structured to be influenced by the value of future SMR commercialization options.
NuScale Power vs. Competitor Comparison
| item | NuScale (SMR) | OKLO | Centrus (LEU) | BWX Tech (BWXT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market capitalization | $3.89B | $10.16B | $3.61B | $19.24B |
| TTM Sales (USD M) | $18.7M | Virtually 0 | $452.3M | $3,376.4M |
| TTM Sales Growth Rate (YoY) | -95.8% | n/a | +4.9% | +26.1% |
| Operating Margin (TTM) | large deficit | Deficit | -0.3% | +10.4% |
| Forward P/E | Deficit (-) | Deficit (-) | 46.3 | 40.4 |
| Key differentiators | The only SMR holding NRC design certification | Fast Reactor Aurora · IPP · 14GW Pipeline | The only US supplier of HALEU enrichment | Surplus in Navy Reactor and Existing Nuclear Power Plant Parts |
NuScale holds the advantage in 'regulatory preemption.' It is the only SMR company to hold both NRC design certification and standard design approval.
On the other hand, regarding business momentum and market capitalization OKLO, an SMR nuclear power stock benefiting from AI power shortagesIt leads. Oklahoma has a 14GW pipeline and an Independent Power Producer (IPP) model, and its market capitalization is also about 2.6 times larger.
Centrus (LEU) and BWX Tech (BWXT) are already profitable 'nuclear value chain' companies, and the nature of their risks differs from those of NuScale and Oklo, which are in the deficit and pre-investment stage.
NuScale Power Growth Outlook and Key Drivers
The key drivers of growth are power demand originating from AI data centers and demand for carbon-free base load power.
The biggest potential driver is a deployment plan of up to 6 GW being pursued by ENTRA1 and the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), which is cited as the largest SMR deployment program in U.S. history.
Overseas, the Romanian RoPower (Deutsche Sti) project is key. Romania's state-owned Nuclear Electrica has approved the next phase of the 6-module deployment, and the total project cost is estimated at approximately $6B to $7B (approximately 9.228 trillion KRW to 10.766 trillion KRW).
However, the fact that the target for commercial operation of the first RoPower module is 2033 means that there is still a long time left before sales begin in earnest.
The input values for the growth rate estimation are (1) past earnings growth (meaning limited due to milestone volatility), (2) analyst consensus (no significant revenue until the early 2030s), and (3) industry growth rate (global SMR market approximately $5.81B in 2024 → approximately $8.37B in 2032). All three input values place more weight on 'long-term options' than on 'near-term earnings'.
In terms of power demand AI Power Shortage Beneficiary Vistra (VST)나 Constellation Energy (CEG), a beneficiary of nuclear powerUnlike [another company] that is already securing AI power contracts based on profitability, NuScale is in the stage of converting that demand into 'future revenue'.
NuScale Power 12-Month Target Price Scenario
Three scenarios are presented based on the current price of $11.24 (approx. 17,287 won).
| scenario | Target price | Compared to the current price | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $20 (approx. 30,760 won) | +78% | 20% |
| Base | $14 (approx. 21,532 won) | +24.6% | 45% |
| Bear | $7 (approx. 10,766 won) | -37.7% | 35% |
The base scenario $14 (approx. 21,532 won) is close to the analyst median ($14.5) and assumes that ENTRA1·RoPower proceeds according to the current schedule.
The bullish scenario $20 (approx. 30,760 won) is when multiple Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) are confirmed early and AI power contracts become visible.
The bearish scenario $7 (approx. 10,766 won) corresponds to a case where FID delays, continued capital increases, and SMR policy rollbacks overlap, which matches the target price suggested by Citigroup.
The reason for setting the probability weights at 451 TP3T for base, 201 TP3T for bullish, and 351 TP3T for bearish is that it was determined that structural downside factors, such as long-term lead time and repeated capital dilution, are heavier than short-term catalysts.
The probability-weighted target price calculated with these weights is approximately 1 TP4T 12.75 (approximately 19,610 won), and the probability-weighted expected return is approximately +131 TP3T. This corresponds to the Hold range (0~151 TP3T).
NewsScale Power Recent Major Issues
The biggest issue over the past three months is the poor performance in the first quarter of 2026. The stock price plummeted in the short term as a sharp decline in revenue, widening losses, and a large-scale cash outflow were confirmed simultaneously.
Positive developments include the approval of the next phase of the Romania RoPower 6-module project and progress on the plans for a maximum 6GW deployment of ENTRA1 and TVA. The company stated Official IR Press ReleaseThrough this, it highlighted liquidity of approximately 1.0 billion (about 1.538 trillion won) and the plan for the largest nuclear power plant deployment in the U.S.
In mid-June 2026, the stock price showed volatility following news of a safety-related contract being signed. However, this is not a matter that is immediately reflected in revenue.
The overall trend among analysts is a downward trend in target prices. Entering 2026, Canaccord ($60→$25), Barclays ($45→$15), Goldman Sachs ($20→$14), and Citigroup ($9→$7, sell) have successively lowered their target prices.
Key Risks When Investing in NuScale Power
1) Revenue Visibility Risk — Commercial operation of the first module is scheduled for 2033. Impact upon occurrence: Valuation relies solely on 'expectations' due to the absence of significant revenue for the next several years. Monitoring indicators: Number and schedule of Final Investment Decisions (FID).
2) Cash depletion and capital increase dilution risk — Quarterly operating cash outflow is in the hundreds of billions of won. Impact upon occurrence: Existing shareholders' equity is diluted through the issuance of new shares whenever additional financing is required. Monitoring indicators: Growth rate of outstanding shares and quarterly operating cash flow.
3) Policy and regulatory risks — SMR projects are sensitive to government support and licensing schedules. Impact: Policy rollbacks or licensing delays directly undermine project economics. Monitoring indicators: DOE support policies, NRC licensing progress.
4) Volatility and Supply & Demand Risks — Beta 2.22, short selling balance amounts to approximately 201 TP3 T of outstanding shares. Impact upon occurrence: Stock price fluctuates sharply even with a single news item. Monitoring indicators: Trends in short selling balance and trading volume.
Mitigating factors include a near-debt-free financial structure and liquidity of approximately 1.0 billion KRW (approximately 1.538 trillion won). The likelihood of collapse due to funding pressure in the short term is low. Even within the same 'AI Power' theme AI Power Stock Bloom Energy (BE)It must be taken into account that the cash flow structure is different from that of stocks that already generate revenue.
NuScale Power Investment Opinion Conclusion
The investment recommendation is Hold. The conviction is set to Low.
The 12-month baseline target price is 1 TP4 T14 (approx. 21,532 won), and the probability-weighted expected return is approximately +131 TP3 T.
A long-term investment timeframe (3 years or more) is suitable, and the volatility is too high to be viewed as a short-term trading stock.
It is reasonable to limit the position size to a small proportion within the portfolio, classifying it as a high-risk thematic stock. This conclusion is an analysis intended for informational purposes, not an investment recommendation.
5 Frequently Asked Questions about NuScale Power
Q1. What is the 12-month target price for NuScale Power (SMR)?
Based on the base scenario, the level is $14 (approx. 21,532 KRW), suggesting a bullish range of $20 (approx. 30,760 KRW) and a bearish range of $7 (approx. 10,766 KRW). The probability-weighted expected return is approximately +13%, placing it in the Hold zone.
Q2. Why is NuScale Power classified as a beneficiary of the AI data center power market?
The key point is that it is the only SMR company to have received NRC design certification. The ENTRA1 and TVA deployment plans of up to 6GW and the Romania RoPower 6 module project are linked to the demand for AI power shortages. However, full-scale revenue generation is expected in the early 2030s.
Q3. Is NuScale Power's current stock price overvalued or undervalued?
It is difficult to make a judgment based on traditional valuations. With virtually no revenue, the P/S ratio exceeds 200 times, and free cash flow is negative. The stock price depends on the value of future SMR commercialization options, so the appropriate range is around the analyst consensus ($14~15).
Q4. Which is more attractive to invest in, NuScale Power (SMR) or Oklo (OKLO)?
NuScale's strength lies in the regulatory advantage of holding NRC design certification, while Oklo's strengths are its 14GW pipeline, IPP business model, and strong momentum. Oklo's market capitalization is approximately 2.6 times larger. Both are in the deficit and upfront investment phase, making them extremely volatile.
Q5. What is the biggest risk when investing in NuScale Power?
With the first module scheduled for commercial operation in 2033, revenue visibility remains distant, and quarterly operating losses and large-scale cash depletion persist. Stock dilution due to repeated capital increases and the extreme volatility of a beta of 2.2 are key monitoring indicators.
Sources
- NuScale Power Q1 2026 Earnings Announcement (SEC EDGAR, 8-K)
- NuScale Power Q4 & Annual 2025 Earnings Press Release (Company Investor Relations)
- NuScale Power (SMR) Analyst Target Price Consensus (MarketBeat)
Disclaimer: This article is an analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment solicitation or a recommendation to trade. The investor bears full responsibility for all investment decisions and their consequences.
※ This analysis utilized AI tools during the writing process, and the final content has been verified by the author. It is for informational purposes only, and investment decisions and responsibilities lie solely with the investor.