Vistra (VST) is an independent power generator poised to be the biggest beneficiary of the surge in power demand for AI data centers and has signed decades-long supply contracts with Meta and AWS. Based on a mixed nuclear and gas portfolio, it has a 12-month baseline target price of 1 TP 4 T 205 (approx. 311,600 KRW) and a Buy rating, with upside potential of approximately 311 TP 3 T from the current price.
Analysis Date: 2026-05-25 | Applied Exchange Rate: 1 USD = 1,520 KRW
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- Key Summary of Vistra VST Stock Price Outlook
- What kind of company is Vistra (VST)?
- Key Terms You Need to Know Before Vistra Analysis
- Vistra Recent Q4 Earnings Analysis
- Bistra Fair Stock Price Analysis (DCF/Multiple)
- Vistra VST vs. Competitor Comparison
- Vistra Growth Outlook and AI Power Driver
- Vistra 12-Month Target Price Scenario
- Vistra's Recent Major Issues
- Key Risks When Investing in Vistra
- Vistra VST Investment Opinion Conclusion
- 5 Frequently Asked Questions about Vistra (VST)
Key Summary of Vistra VST Stock Price Outlook
The 12-month baseline target price for Vistra (Vistra Corp., NYSE: VST) is $205 (approx. 311,600 won).
The investment opinion is Buy, and it suggests an upside of about 31.21 TP3T from the current price of 1 TP4T156.27 (approx. 237,530 won).
The key factors are a 20-year long-term nuclear power contract of over 2,600 MW with Meta, structural growth in power demand for AI data centers, and an earnings surprise with Q1 2026 revenue YoY +431 TP3T.
| item | detail |
|---|---|
| Current stock price | $156.27 (approx. 237,530 won) |
| 52-week range | $132.66 (approx. 201,643 KRW) ~ $219.82 (approx. 334,126 KRW) |
| Market capitalization | $52.69B (approx. 80 trillion 888 billion won) |
| Investment opinion | Buy |
| 12-month baseline target price | $205 (approx. 311,600 won) |
| 12-month bullish target price | $260 (approx. 395,200 won) |
| 12-month bearish target price | $140 (approx. 212,800 won) |
| Weighted expected rate of return | +29.6% |
| TTM EPS | $5.99 (approx. 9,105 won) |
| 2027E EPS | $10.96 (approx. 16,659 won) |
| Forward P/E | 14.3x |
| Dividend yield | 0.59% ($0.92 / approx. 1,398 KRW) |
What kind of company is Vistra (VST)?
Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas. As one of the largest independent power producers (IPPs) in the United States, it significantly expanded its nuclear power portfolio through the acquisition of Energy Harbor in 2024.
It has a generation capacity of approximately 44,000 MW and operates an integrated model that retails electricity to 5 million people. It possesses various energy sources including nuclear power, natural gas, coal (phased closure), solar power, and battery storage.
Business Segments: 5 segments: Retail (Electric & Gas Retail), Texas (ERCOT), East (PJM/MISO/ISO-NE), West (CAISO/WECC), and Asset Closure.
Business Model: An integrated model combining wholesale power sales and retail electricity and gas supply. The company is transitioning toward enhancing cash flow visibility through long-term PPAs with Meta and AWS.
Major Competitors: Constellation Energy (CEG), a nuclear power giant benefiting from AI power, Talen Energy (TLN) and NRG Energy (NRG) form an AI power IPP group.
Key Terms You Need to Know Before Vistra Analysis
- IPP (Independent Power Producer)
- Independent Power Generation Company. A business operator that generates and sells electricity without owning a power distribution network. This includes Vistra, CEG, TLN, and NRG.
- PPA (Power Purchase Agreement)
- Power Purchase Agreement. A long-term contract to supply power at a specific price, volume, and period. Vistra has signed a 20-year long-term PPA with Meta and a long-term PPA with AWS.
- ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas)
- Texas power grid operator. Operates as a free-market system without federal regulation, resulting in high electricity price volatility. Vistra's largest segment.
- PJM (PJM Interconnection)
- The operator of the power grids for 13 eastern US states. Most of Bistra's nuclear assets (acquired by Energy Harbor) belong to PJM.
- Nuclear Uprate
- The process of increasing maximum output through investment in existing reactor facilities. VIESTRA is currently conducting the largest corporate-backed nuclear power enhancement program in U.S. history.
- Hyperscaler (Hyperscale Data Center Operator)
- Big Tech companies operating massive data centers, such as Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, are Vistra's direct long-term power purchasing customers.
Vistra Recent Q4 Earnings Analysis
Quarterly Sales and Profit Trends
| branch | Sales (USD) | Sales (Korean Won) | Operating Profit (USD) | Net Profit (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $4,250M | Approximately 6.46 trillion won | $583M | $327M |
| Q3 2025 | $4,971M | Approximately 7.5559 trillion won | $1,042M | $652M |
| Q4 2025 | $4,584M | Approximately 6.9677 trillion won | $629M | $233M |
| Q1 2026 | $5,640M | Approximately 8.5728 trillion won | $1,499M | $1,029M |
| TTM Total | $19,445M | Approximately 29 trillion 556.4 billion won | $3,753M | $2,241M |
Q1 2026 revenue was 5,640M (approx. 8.5728 trillion won), a sharp increase of 431M compared to the same period last year (3,933M).
This is the result of the combined effects of the 2024 Energy Harbor acquisition and the rise in wholesale electricity prices.
Q1 2026 Earnings Surprise Details
Q1 2026 results exceeded consensus in all major categories. Q1 2026 10-Q Report Filed with the SEC The benchmark operating profit was 149.9 million (approximately 2.2785 trillion won), a dramatic turnaround from the operating loss of -120 million in Q1 2025.
- Revenue: $5,640M vs. Estimated $5,620M (slightly exceeded)
- Adj. EBITDA: $1,494M (approx. 2.271 trillion KRW), YoY +20%
- Diluted EPS: $2.87 (GAAP), Non-GAAP $1.31 vs. Exceeding $1.28
- Stock price rose 3.81 TP pre-market after earnings announcement
Profitability Indicators
| branch | Operating profit margin | EBITDA (USD) | Net profit margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 13.7% | $1,413M | 7.7% |
| Q3 2025 | 21.0% | $1,789M | 13.1% |
| Q4 2025 | 13.7% | $1,282M | 5.1% |
| Q1 2026 | 26.6% | $2,173M | 18.2% |
Financial Health (as of Q1 2026)
Total debt is 1 TP 4 T 19.9 B (approx. 30.248 trillion won) and net debt is 1 TP 4 T 19.3 B (approx. 29.336 trillion won), with a D/E ratio of 3551 TP 3 T.
Although leverage is high due to the nature of the utility and power generation sectors, the TTM operating cash flow of 4,670M (approx. 71 trillion won) sufficiently covers quarterly interest expenses (243~249M).
Quarterly Trend of Free Cash Flow (FCF)
| branch | Operating cash flow | Capital Expenditure (CapEx) | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $572M | -$690M | -$118M |
| Q3 2025 | $1,467M | -$458M | $1,009M |
| Q4 2025 | $1,432M | -$836M | $596M |
| Q1 2026 | $1,199M | -$883M | $316M |
| TTM Total | $4,670M | -$2,867M | $1,803M |
TTM FCF is 1,803M (approximately 2.7406 trillion won).
The reason for the high CapEx is investment in the Nuclear Uprate program, which leads to an increase in power generation capacity within the next 3 to 5 years. The normal FCF based on maintenance is estimated to be at the level of $3B+.
Bistra Fair Stock Price Analysis (DCF/Multiple)
Key Valuation Indicators
| characteristic | VST | note |
|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E (FY2027E) | 14.3x | Undervalued compared to CEG ~28x |
| Trailing P/E (TTM) | 26.1x | – |
| PEG Ratio | 0.47x | Undervalued relative to growth |
| P/S (TTM) | 2.7x | – |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 11.0x | Industry average ~12x |
| P/B | 20.2x | High leverage reflected |
Forward P/E 14.3x is Constellation Energy (CEG, ~28x), a pure nuclear power stock benefiting from AI powerIt is half the level compared to.
A PEG of 0.47x indicates high price attractiveness compared to annual +26% EPS growth (FY2027E $10.96).
DCF Assumption Table (Mandatory Disclosure)
| DCF assumption items | Usage value | reason |
|---|---|---|
| Discount rate (WACC) | 10.5% | Beta 1.45, Risk-free rate 4.51 TP3T, Market premium 51 TP3T, High leverage reflected |
| End-of-life value growth rate (g) | 2.5% | Long-term GDP growth rate + AI power demand premium |
| forecast period | 5 years | Nuclear Power Plant PPA Contract Visibility (2027–2031) Standard |
| Base FCF (TTM) | $1,803M | Quarterly earnings aggregate |
| Bull FCF assumption | $2,164M (×1.20) | Meta·AWS Contracts Fully Activated + Strong Wholesale Electricity Prices |
| Bear FCF assumption | $1,352M (×0.75) | Falling electricity prices + nuclear power plant operating rate issue |
DCF formula: Fair Value = Σ[FCFₜ/(1+WACC)ᵗ] + Terminal Value/(1+WACC)ᴺ, Terminal Value = FCF_N × (1+g) / (WACC − g)
DCF Fair Value Range: $130~$175 (approx. 197,600 KRW~266,000 KRW)
The current price of $156.27 (approximately 237,530 KRW) is within the range of fair DCF value. The market is partially reflecting the premium for AI power long-term contracts, and the full operation of Meta contracts (2027–2034) provides upside potential.
The analyst consensus is an average target price of 1.2529 based on 17 companies, and Morgan Stanley recently raised its target price to 1.212. MarketBeat Analyst Consensus Based on the criteria, a Strong Buy rating was given to all 11 companies.
Valuation Assessment: Fairly Valued ~ Slightly Undervalued
Vistra VST vs. Competitor Comparison
| item | Vistra (VST) | Constellation (CEG) | Talen(TLN) | NRG Energy (NRG) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market capitalization | $52.7B (80 trillion won) | $110B (167 trillion won) | ~$7B (11 trillion won) | ~$15B (23 trillion won) |
| TTM Sales | $19,445M (29.6 trillion won) | ~$44,000M (66 trillion won) | ~$2,500M (3.8 trillion won) | ~$10,000M (15 trillion won) |
| YoY sales growth rate | +43% | +64%* | high growth | commonly |
| Operating Margin | 26.6% | ~12% | ~18% | ~10% |
| Forward P/E | 14.3x | ~28x | ~15x | ~10x |
| Key differentiators | TX-based mixed-use power generation + nuclear power expansion | The largest pure nuclear power plant operator in the United States | PA nuclear power plant single focus | Retail Electricity + Diversification |
CEG's revenue to surge in January 2026 due to the acquisition of Calpine
CEG receives a market premium valuation (28x) for its pure nuclear power play, but Vistra's 14.3x reflects a mixed portfolio discount.
Vistra's profitability (operating margin 26.61 TP3T) surpasses that of CEG, demonstrating the efficiency of the retail-wholesale integrated model.
In terms of AI power infrastructure construction Quanta Services (PWR), a leading stock in AI power grid constructionIt is worth noting that EPC companies such as [company name] are also receiving indirect benefits.
Vistra Growth Outlook and AI Power Driver
Growth rate estimate
| division | growth rate | weight | source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Past CAGR (3 years) | ~15% | 40% | yfinance performance data |
| Analyst consensus | ~25% | 40% | Upward trend of 17 analysts' Forward EPS |
| Industrial growth rate (AI power) | ~20% | 20% | U.S. Data Center Power Demand Projected to Over 201 TP3 T+ per Year by 2030 |
| Weighted estimated growth rate | ~20% | 100% | Weighted average |
Key Growth Drivers
- Meta 20-Year Nuclear Power PPA: Over 2,600 MW (Perry, Davis-Besse, Beaver Valley nuclear power plants). Sequential supply to begin in the second half of 2026, full supply by the end of 2027.
- AWS Solar PPA: Oak Hill 200MW Facility. A renewable energy project utilizing a repurposed abandoned coal mine site.
- Nuclear Uprate: The largest corporate support program in U.S. history. Additional output scheduled to begin operation from 2031 to 2034.
- Share buyback completed: Maximizing EPS leverage through the purchase of 168.28 million shares worth $6.13 billion.
From the perspective of benefits for power infrastructure equipment AI power infrastructure beneficiary Eaton (ETN)Power distribution equipment companies also benefit from Vistra's expansion of power generation capacity.
2026E EPS is expected to be 8.71 (approx. 13,239 KRW) and 2027E EPS is expected to be 10.96 (approx. 16,659 KRW), with an annual average growth of +261 TP3T.
Vistra 12-Month Target Price Scenario
Basic Scenario (Probability 50%)
Method: FY2027E EPS $10.96 × Target P/E 18.7x
Target Price: $205 (approx. 311,600 KRW), Expected Return +31.2%
This is a scenario where the current Forward P/E (14.3x) is re-rated to the historical average (~18~19x) level when AI contract visibility is reflected.
Bullish Scenario (Probability 25%)
Method: FY2027E EPS $10.96 × Target P/E 23.7x
Target Price: $260 (approx. 395,200 KRW), Expected Return +66.4%
Conditions: Meta contract fully operational, strong wholesale power prices, additional hyperscaler contract signed.
Bearish scenario (probability 25%)
Method: FY2027E EPS $10.96 × Target P/E 12.8x
Target Price: $140 (approx. 212,800 KRW), Expected Return -10.4%
Conditions: Sharp drop in wholesale electricity prices, tightening of ERCOT regulations, nuclear power plant operating rate issues.
Calculation of Weighted Expected Return
E[Profit] = (0.50 × $205) + (0.25 × $260) + (0.25 × $140) = $102.5 + $65 + $35 = $202.5
Weighted Expected Return = ($202.5 − $156.27) / $156.27 = +29.6%
Basis for selecting scenario weights: Vistra's revenue visibility has increased due to long-term contracts with Meta and AWS, and earnings momentum was confirmed by an earnings surprise in Q1 2026. However, seasonal volatility in ERCOT wholesale power prices and high leverage of D/E 355% remain risks, so we have balanced the bullish and bearish weights at 25% each. There is room to raise the bullish probability to 30% if additional hyperscaler contracts are announced in the coming quarter.
Vistra's Recent Major Issues
1. Signing of Meta 20-Year Nuclear PPA (January 2026)
Vistra has signed a 20-year long-term purchase agreement with Meta Platforms for over 2,600 MW of nuclear power. Carbon Credits ReportAccording to [source], this is a contract to supply power from the Perry-Davis-Besse nuclear power plant in Ohio and the Beaver Valley nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania to Meta's AI data center, with supply scheduled to begin in the second half of 2026 and full supply expected by the end of 2027.
2. AWS Solar PPA (Oak Hill Solar)
Vistra completed the construction of the Oak Hill 200MW solar power plant in Virginia and signed a PPA with Amazon Web Services (AWS). As a renewable energy project that repurposes a closed coal mine site, it is also positive from an ESG perspective.
3. Q1 2026 Record Quarterly Earnings + Share Buyback Completed
The share buyback program launched in October 2021 was completed in Q1 2026. A total of 168.28 million shares were repurchased at $6.13 billion (an average of approximately $36 per share), significantly reducing the number of outstanding shares and maximizing the EPS leverage effect.
4. Trump and Pelosi's joint purchase
It was revealed that both former President Trump and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi purchased VST stock. This symbolizes bipartisan recognition of the AI power demand investment theme, transcending the political spectrum.
For reference, in the field of power and cooling for AI data centers Vertiv (VRT), a leading stock in AI data center power and coolingIt is attracting attention as a key beneficiary of the AI infrastructure investment theme, along with Vistra.
Key Risks When Investing in Vistra
1. ERCOT Wholesale Electricity Price Volatility
Risk: Wholesale electricity prices in the Texas ERCOT market fluctuate drastically depending on weather, supply, and demand. When electricity prices fall, Vistra's generation margins take a direct hit.
Impact upon occurrence: If electricity prices fall by 101 TP3T per MWh, operating profit may decrease by 10–151 TP3T.
Monitoring Indicators: ERCOT futures prices, Texas summer heatwave forecast, natural gas prices.
2. High leverage & interest rate risk
Risk: D/E 3551 TP 3T, Total Debt 1 TP 4T 19.9B (approx. 30.248 trillion KRW). Increased interest burden and refinancing risk exist in the event of rising interest rates.
Impact upon occurrence: A 100bp increase in interest rates results in an additional annual interest expense of approximately 1 TP/4 T/200M → a decrease in EPS of $0.5–$0.6.
Monitoring Indicators: 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, investment-grade credit spread, Vistra debt maturity schedule.
3. Nuclear Operation Risks
Risk: Unplanned outages at nuclear power plants directly lead to a sharp decline in revenue. Delays in nuclear power output upgrades also disrupt mid-to-long-term growth plans.
Impact upon occurrence: Loss of electricity revenue of approximately 1 TP 4 T 500M when a 1,000MW nuclear power plant is shut down for 3 months.
Monitoring Indicators: Nuclear power plant utilization rate, NRC (Nuclear Regulatory Commission) inspection results, nuclear fuel procurement status.
4. Regulatory and Policy Risks
Risk: Intervention by regulatory agencies such as FERC and PUC regarding power supply for AI data centers. Changes to the design of the Texas ERCOT market. Changes to nuclear subsidy policy.
Monitoring Indicators: FERC policy trends, Texas State Legislature ERCOT bill, continuation of Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) nuclear tax credit.
5. Risk of AI Capital Investment Cycle Adjustment
Risk: Long-term power demand forecasts may be lowered due to oversupply of AI data centers or a slowdown in the adoption of AI technology.
Impact upon occurrence: No direct impact on long-term PPA price levels, but risk of future decline in additional contract unit prices and stock valuation re-rating.
Monitoring Indicators: Big Tech Data Center CapEx Announcements, AI Chip (NVDA) Demand Indicators, Power Demand Forecast Agency Reports.
Vistra VST Investment Opinion Conclusion
Investment Opinion: Buy | Confidence: Medium-High | Investment Period: 12 months
The current stock price of $156.27 (approx. 237,530 won) is near the upper end of the DCF fair value ($130~$175, approx. 197,600 won~266,000 won), but it is a level that does not reflect the long-term option value of the growth in AI power demand structure.
A forward P/E of 14.3x is an attractive entry point considering the annual +26% EPS growth (PEG 0.47x).
The full-scale operation of the Meta contract (second half of 2026–2027) and the completion of nuclear power enhancement (2031–2034) are additional drivers for mid-to-long-term performance growth.
※ This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make your final investment decisions at your own discretion.
5 Frequently Asked Questions about Vistra (VST)
Q1. What is the 12-month target price for Vistra (VST)?
Based on the base scenario, the range is $205 (approx. 311,600 won), with a bullish scenario of $260 (approx. 395,200 won) and a bearish scenario of $140 (approx. 212,800 won). With a weighted expected return of approximately +29.6%, we recommend a Buy rating.
Q2. Why is Vistra classified as a beneficiary of the AI data center power market?
This is because it has signed a 20-year nuclear PPA of over 2,600 MW with Meta and directly supplies stable power to AI data centers through a solar PPA with AWS. The 44,000 MW nuclear and gas combined cycle portfolio is optimized for the demand of data centers requiring uninterrupted 24-hour power supply.
Q3. Is Vistra's current stock price overvalued or undervalued?
The forward P/E of 14.3x (based on 2027E EPS $10.96) is about half the level of peers (~28x), and with a PEG of 0.47x, it is highly attractive in terms of price relative to growth. Compared to the DCF fair value ($130~$175, approximately 197,600 KRW~266,000 KRW), the current price is near the upper end, so it is judged to be in the 'fair to slightly undervalued' range.
Q4. Which is more attractive to invest in, Vistra (VST) or Constellation Energy (CEG)?
VST’s strengths lie in its low valuation (Forward P/E 14.3x vs. CEG 28x) and high profitability (operating margin 26.61 TP3T vs. CEG ~121 TP3T). VST offers a price-to-growth ratio (PEG) advantage and provides higher expected returns to investors who can tolerate short-term volatility.
Q5. What is the biggest risk when investing in Vistra?
There are three factors: ERCOT wholesale electricity price volatility (a key variable for short-term profits), the high leverage of D/E 355% (interest burden when interest rates rise), and the risk of nuclear power plant shutdowns. ERCOT futures prices, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, and NRC nuclear power plant operation data must be monitored regularly.
※ This article was written based on publicly available data with the assistance of AI research tools, and the content was reviewed by the author prior to publication. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation.