{"id":399,"date":"2026-06-27T02:12:58","date_gmt":"2026-06-27T02:12:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/andyguy.com\/asml-euv-lithography-stock-analysis-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-07-07T01:05:54","modified_gmt":"2026-07-07T01:05:54","slug":"asml-euv-lithography-stock-analysis-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/andyguy.com\/en\/asml-euv-lithography-stock-analysis-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"No AI Semiconductors Without ASML? Analysis of EUV Monopoly Power and 2026 Earnings and Stock Price Forecasts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ASML is the world&#039;s leading semiconductor equipment company, holding a virtual monopoly on EUV and High-NA lithography. Driven by a surge in demand for AI chips, the company raised its 2026 revenue guidance to \u20ac36\u201340 billion and has entered the 12-month baseline target price range of $1,950 and a Hold rating.<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Analysis Date: 2026-06-27 \u00b7 Applied Exchange Rates: 1 USD = 1,543 KRW (2026-06-26), 1 EUR = 1,749 KRW (2026-06-27). Share price, target price, and EPS are calculated in USD, while corporate financials such as revenue, profit, and guidance are converted in EUR (Euro), ASML&#039;s reporting currency. As ASML is a stock with a high absolute price per share ($1,794), the converted values of the share price and target price in Korean Won exceed 1 million KRW, which is normal. This article is an analysis for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"toc\">index<\/h2>\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"#exec-summary\">Key Summary of ASML Stock Price Outlook<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#company\">What kind of company is ASML?<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#glossary\">Key Terms to Know Before ASML Analysis<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#financials\">ASML Recent Q4 Earnings Analysis<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#valuation\">ASML Fair Value Analysis (DCF\/Multiple)<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#competitors\">ASML vs. Competitor Comparison<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#growth\">ASML Growth Outlook and Key Drivers<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#forecast\">ASML 12-Month Target Price Scenario<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#news\">ASML Recent Major Issues<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#risks\">Key Risks When Investing in ASML<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#recommendation\">ASML Investment Opinion Conclusion<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#faq\">5 ASML Frequently Asked Questions<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"exec-summary\">Key Summary of ASML Stock Price Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>ASML&#039;s 12-month baseline target price is $1,950 (approx. 3,008,850 won).<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The investment recommendation is Hold.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The key rationale is the upward revision of revenue guidance for 2026 (\u20ac36\u201340B) driven by the monopoly power of EUV and High-NA lithography and demand for AI chips.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The current price is 1,794.62 (approx. 2,769,099 won), approaching the 52-week high of 1,959.04 (approx. 3,022,799 won). Over the past year, the stock price has surged by approximately 1,251, and the market capitalization has reached approximately 1,067 trillion won.<\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Investment Point 1:<\/strong> An exclusive moat that is the only one in the world to mass-produce and supply EUV lithography equipment, which is essential for advanced processes of 7nm or less.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Investment Point 2:<\/strong> As demand for AI chips accelerates investment in advanced processes by TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, they have raised their 2026 guidance to \u20ac36\u201340 billion (approximately 62.964 trillion to 69.96 trillion won).<\/li>\n<li><strong>Investment Point 3:<\/strong> Short-term upside potential is limited due to high valuations of approximately 61x trailing P\/E and 38x forward P\/E, and a surge of +1,251 TP3T to 52 weeks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"company\">What kind of company is ASML?<\/h2>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ASML Holding NV is the world&#039;s largest semiconductor lithography company, founded in 1984 and headquartered in Veldhoven, Netherlands.<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The core businesses are EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) and DUV (Deep Ultraviolet) lithography equipment, metrology and inspection equipment, computational lithography software, and upgrade and maintenance services for installed equipment. Revenue is largely divided into system (equipment) sales and installation-based revenue (services and field options).<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The business model is structured to combine the sale of high-priced equipment with multi-year high-margin service revenue. It supplies EUV and High-NA equipment, ranging from tens of millions to hundreds of millions of dollars per unit, to global advanced foundry and memory companies such as TSMC, Samsung Electronics, Intel, and Micron.<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the competitive landscape, while there are strong players such as Applied Materials (AMAT), Lam Research (LRCX), KLA (KLAC), and Tokyo Electron (TEL) in the deposition, etching, and metrology sectors, ASML is the only company that mass-produces and supplies EUV lithography equipment. This monopolistic position is ASML&#039;s key moat.<\/p>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"glossary\">Key Terms to Know Before ASML Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography):<\/strong> It is a photolithography technology that etches fine circuits of 7nm or smaller onto a wafer using light with a wavelength of 13.5nm. ASML is the only company in the world that supplies mass-production EUV equipment.<\/li>\n<li><strong>High-NA EUV (High-Aperture EUV):<\/strong> It is a next-generation EUV machine that enables next-generation processes of 2nm or smaller by increasing the numerical aperture (NA) from 0.33 to 0.55. Priced at approximately 1 TP4T370M (about 570.9 billion KRW) per unit, it is ASML&#039;s next growth engine.<\/li>\n<li><strong>DUV (Deep Ultraviolet Lithography):<\/strong> It is immersion and dry lithography equipment from the generation prior to EUV. Used in mature and legacy processes, it accounts for a significant portion of sales in China and is a key target of export restrictions.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Net bookings (quarterly orders):<\/strong> This is the value of new equipment orders secured during the quarter. It is the most important leading indicator for gauging ASML&#039;s revenue visibility.<\/li>\n<li><strong>WFE (Wafer Fab Equipment):<\/strong> This is a classification referring to the entire semiconductor front-end manufacturing equipment market, and includes ASML, AMAT, LRCX, and others.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"financials\">ASML Recent Q4 Earnings Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ASML uses the EUR as its reporting currency. The quarterly revenue and profit figures below are all based on EUR, and the KRW in parentheses has been converted to 1 EUR = 1,749 KRW.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><thead><tr><th>branch<\/th><th>Sales (EUR)<\/th><th>Operating Profit (EUR)<\/th><th>Net Profit (EUR)<\/th><th>EPS (EUR)<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Q1 2025<\/td><td>\u20ac7,741.5M<\/td><td>\u20ac2,737.9M<\/td><td>\u20ac2,355.0M<\/td><td>\u20ac6.00<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q2 2025<\/td><td>\u20ac7,691.7M<\/td><td>\u20ac3,137.9M<\/td><td>\u20ac2,676.2M<\/td><td>\u2014<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q3 2025<\/td><td>\u20ac7,516.0M<\/td><td>\u20ac2,468.4M<\/td><td>\u20ac2,124.5M<\/td><td>\u20ac5.48<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q4 2025<\/td><td>\u20ac9,718.1M<\/td><td>\u20ac3,431.1M<\/td><td>\u20ac2,839.6M<\/td><td>\u20ac7.34<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q1 2026<\/td><td>\u20ac8,766.9M<\/td><td>\u20ac3,157.8M<\/td><td>\u20ac2,756.7M<\/td><td>\u20ac7.15<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Revenue for the first quarter of 2026, the most recently announced result, was \u20ac8,766.9M (approx. 15.3333 trillion KRW), an increase of approximately 131 TP3T compared to the same period last year. Net income was \u20ac2,756.7M (approx. 4.8215 trillion KRW), and the baseline EPS was \u20ac7.15, an earnings surprise that significantly exceeded the consensus of \u20ac6.00.<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Profitability is top-tier. In Q1 2026, the gross profit margin was 53.01 TP3T and the operating profit margin was approximately 361 TP3T, maintaining exceptionally high margins for an equipment company. The return on equity (ROE) reached approximately 521 TP3T.<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The company announced <a href=\"https:\/\/www.asml.com\/en\/news\/press-releases\/2026\/q1-2026-financial-results\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">ASML Q1 2026 Earnings Press Release<\/a>According to [source], management raised full-year revenue guidance for 2026 to \u20ac36\u201340 billion (approximately 62.964 trillion to 69.96 trillion won). This is an increase from the previous range of \u20ac34\u201339 billion. Second-quarter guidance is revenue of \u20ac8.4\u20139.0 billion (approximately 14.6916 trillion to 15.741 trillion won) and a gross profit margin of 51\u2013521 TP3T.<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Financial soundness is robust. As of the end of the first quarter of 2026, cash and short-term investments stood at approximately \u20ac8,376.3M (approximately \u20a914.6502 trillion), and total borrowings at approximately \u20ac2,705.6M (approximately \u20a94.7321 trillion), resulting in a net cash position. The current ratio is 1.36 times.<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Free cash flow (FCF) shows significant quarterly volatility. Depending on the timing of customer advance payments, a large inflow of \u20ac10.9B occurred in Q4 2025, while an outflow of approximately -\u20ac2.6B occurred in Q1 2026 due to changes in working capital. However, the combined TTM FCF for the previous four quarters is approximately \u20ac8.9B (approximately 15.6245 trillion KRW), maintaining robust cash generation.<\/p>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"valuation\">ASML Fair Value Analysis (DCF\/Multiple)<\/h2>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Current valuations significantly exceed the market average. The trailing P\/E is approximately 61x, the forward P\/E is approximately 38x, and the P\/S is approximately 20x. The TTM EPS is $29.46 (approx. 45,457 KRW), and the forward EPS consensus is $47.77 (approx. 73,709 KRW).<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The following are the assumptions used for the simplified DCF. The results are presented as a range rather than a single value.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><thead><tr><th>DCF assumption items<\/th><th>Usage value<\/th><th>reason<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Discount rate (WACC)<\/td><td>9.5%<\/td><td>Beta 1.40 \u00b7 Large-cap blue-chip stocks \u00b7 Industry cost of capital<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>End-of-life value growth rate (g)<\/td><td>3.0%<\/td><td>Long-term semiconductor demand and prices<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>forecast period<\/td><td>5 years<\/td><td>EUV\u00b7High-NA Cycle Visibility<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Base FCF (TTM)<\/td><td>\u20ac8.9B<\/td><td>Sum of the previous four quarters<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bull FCF assumption<\/td><td>\u20ac11.6B (Base\u00d71.3)<\/td><td>Upper guidance \u00b7 High-NA acceleration<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bear FCF assumption<\/td><td>\u20ac6.7B (Base\u00d70.75)<\/td><td>AI Capex Slowdown and China Regulations<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Based on the above assumptions, the fair value range for DCF is approximately 1 TP4T1,550 to 1 TP4T2,050 per share (approximately 2,391,650 KRW to 3,163,150 KRW). Under conservative short-term FCF assumptions, the current price is valued close to the upper end of the fair value, and the upper end can be justified by reflecting the 2030 model presented by ASML (revenue \u20ac44\u201360B, gross profit margin 56\u2013601 TP3T).<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Historically and relative to peers, ASML has always traded at a premium, but its current trailing P\/E of 61x exceeds its own 5-year average. While its monopolistic moat justifies the premium, the valuation burden is clear. The overall assessment is that the stock is in the fair to slightly overvalued range.<\/p>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"competitors\">ASML vs. Competitor Comparison<\/h2>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The semiconductor front-end equipment market is dominated by five companies: ASML, AMAT, LRCX, TEL, and KLA. In the table below, the figures for competitors other than ASML are approximations (estimates) based on market data as of June 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><thead><tr><th>item<\/th><th>ASML<\/th><th>AMAT<\/th><th>Lam Research (LRCX)<\/th><th>KLA(KLAC)<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Market capitalization<\/td><td>Approx. $691.7B<\/td><td>Approx. $318B<\/td><td>Approx. $170B (estimated)<\/td><td>Approx. $140B (estimated)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>TTM Sales<\/td><td>Approximately $38B(\u20ac33.7B)<\/td><td>Approx. $28.4B<\/td><td>Approximately $18B (estimated)<\/td><td>Approximately $13B (estimated)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sales Growth Rate (YoY)<\/td><td>Approx. +13%<\/td><td>Approx. +5% (estimated)<\/td><td>Approx. +15% (estimated)<\/td><td>Approx. +20% (estimated)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Operating margin (TTM)<\/td><td>Approx. 36%<\/td><td>Approximately 291 TP3 T (estimated)<\/td><td>Approximately 30% (estimated)<\/td><td>Approximately 401 TP3 T (estimated)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Forward P\/E<\/td><td>About 38 times<\/td><td>Approximately 22 times (estimated)<\/td><td>Approximately 26 times (estimated)<\/td><td>Approximately 28 times (estimated)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Key differentiators<\/td><td>EUV and High-NA lithography monopoly<\/td><td>Comprehensive front-end process including deposition and etching<\/td><td>High proportion of etching, deposition, and services<\/td><td>No. 1 in Inspection and Measurement<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ASML is unrivaled in terms of revenue scale and technological moat. While Applied Materials leads in the breadth of its equipment portfolio, ASML is the only company that mass-produces lithography equipment essential for advanced processes below 7nm. However, ASML has the highest valuation. Designing connectivity chips within the same AI semiconductor chain <a href=\"https:\/\/andyguy.com\/en\/astera-labs-alab-stock-analysis-2026\/\" title=\"Astera Labs ALAB Stock Analysis\">Astera Labs (ALAB), a key stock in AI-connected semiconductors<\/a>I, benefiting from the recovery of the semiconductor industry <a href=\"https:\/\/andyguy.com\/en\/analog-devices-adi-stock-analysis-2026\/\" title=\"Analog Devices ADI Stock Price Forecast\">No. 1 Analog &amp; Mixed-Signal Devices, Analog Devices (ADI)<\/a>When viewed together with this, you can understand the landscape of AI semiconductor investment in a three-dimensional way.<\/p>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"growth\">ASML Growth Outlook and Key Drivers<\/h2>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The growth rate estimate incorporated weighted historical performance, analyst consensus, and industry growth rates. The historical revenue CAGR was estimated at approximately 151 TP3T (2024 \u20ac28.3B \u2192 2025 \u20ac32.7B \u2192 2026 midpoint guidance \u20ac38B), the consensus growth rate at approximately 161 TP3T, and the semiconductor equipment industry growth rate at approximately 101 TP3T.<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Applying the weighted formula (historical \u00d7 0.4 + consensus \u00d7 0.4 + industry \u00d7 0.2), the expected growth rate is approximately 14.41 TP3T.<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are three key growth drivers. First, demand for AI chips is accelerating the adoption of EUV and investment in advanced processes by TSMC, Samsung, and Intel. Second, the number of High-NA EUV units will expand from 5\u201310 in 2026 to over 20 in 2028, becoming a new revenue source of approximately 1 TP4T370M (about 570.9 billion KRW) per unit. Third, high-margin service revenue is structurally increasing due to the expansion of the installed base. The growth trend of the AI inference chip market is <a href=\"https:\/\/andyguy.com\/en\/cerebras-cbrs-stock-analysis-2026\/\" title=\"Celebras CBRS Stock Analysis\">AI inference chip company CBRS<\/a> This can also be confirmed in the analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"forecast\">ASML 12-Month Target Price Scenario<\/h2>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We present a 12-month target price scenario based on the current price of $1,794.62 (approx. 2,769,099 KRW).<\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Basic Scenario (Probability 501 TP 3 T): 1 TP 4 T 1,950 (approx. 3,008,850 KRW).<\/strong> Applying approximately 41x to the forward EPS of 47.77. This reflects increased AI orders and upward guidance, while taking into account the high valuation. Approximately +8.71 TP3T from the current price.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Bullish Scenario (Probability 251 TP 3 T): 1 TP 4 T 2,345 (approx. 3,618,335 KRW).<\/strong> Revenue to reach the upper end of \u20ac40B by 2026, with accelerated adoption of High-NA and mitigation of China risks. Same as BofA&#039;s target price. Approximately +30.71 TP3T from current price.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Bearish scenario (probability 25%): $1,420 (approx. 2,191,060 KRW).<\/strong> Entering a phase of AI-driven capex absorption, tightening of Chinese export restrictions, and multiple compression. Approximately -20.91 TP3T relative to current price.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The reason for setting the scenario weights at 50\/25\/25 is that while revenue visibility is high due to multi-year orders and a monopolistic moat, the stock price has surged by approximately 1,251 TP3T over 52 weeks, and the valuation has outperformed the historical average, resulting in a balance of upside and downside risks. The weighted expected return is approximately +6.81 TP3T.<\/p>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"news\">ASML Recent Major Issues<\/h2>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On June 22, 2026, BofA raised its target price for ASML from $2,268 to $2,345 and maintained its Buy rating. Wells Fargo also raised its target price to $2,200 and maintained its Overweight rating. The average analyst consensus target price is approximately $1,746, which is close to the current price due to the recent surge.<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/15\/asml-q1-2026-earnings-report.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC Report<\/a>According to [source], the share of sales in China fell to 191 TP3T in Q1 2026. This is a significant decrease compared to 361 TP3T in the previous quarter (Q4 2025). However, the reduced DUV sales in China are being replaced by high-margin EUV demand from AI customers in Taiwan, Korea, and the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The upcoming catalyst is the Q2 2026 earnings announcement scheduled for mid-July. Quarterly net bookings and High-NA shipment trends are key points to watch. Meanwhile, short-term volatility has also increased since late June, as Apple&#039;s product price hikes fueled concerns over memory costs, leading to a simultaneous correction in global semiconductor stocks. ASML <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investing.com\/news\/transcripts\/earnings-call-transcript-asml-holdings-strong-q1-2026-results-boost-outlook-93CH-4614258\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Transcript<\/a>At the meeting, CEO Christophe Fouquet cited the acceleration of customer production capacity expansion driven by demand for AI chips as the background for the upward guidance.<\/p>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"risks\">Key Risks When Investing in ASML<\/h2>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>1. China strengthens export restrictions.<\/strong> China accounts for 191% of Q1 2026 revenue. Revenue will be directly impacted if additional regulations in the U.S. and the Netherlands (such as the MATCH Act) are extended to the DUV. Monitoring indicators include the quarterly share of revenue from China and the progress of related legislation.<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>2. AI Capex Slowdown and Digital Digestion Phase.<\/strong> If the pace of investment by hyperscalers and foundries slows, net bookings decrease, worsening revenue visibility. Monitoring indicators include quarterly net bookings and capex guidance from TSMC, Samsung, and Intel.<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>3. Valuation Risk.<\/strong> With a trailing P\/E of approximately 61x and a surge of +1,251 TP3T in the 52-week period, there is a possibility of a significant correction due to multiple compression in the event of earnings misses or macro shocks. Monitoring indicators include the position of the forward P\/E relative to its historical average and actual earnings relative to quarterly guidance.<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>4. Delay in High-NA adoption.<\/strong> If the adoption of High-NA EUV, a next-generation growth engine, is delayed longer than expected, growth momentum will weaken in 2027\u20132028. Monitoring indicators include quarterly High-NA shipment volumes and customer adoption announcements. The volatility of the semiconductor precision component cycle is <a href=\"https:\/\/andyguy.com\/en\/sitime-sitm-stock-analysis-price-target-2026\/\" title=\"SI Time SITM Stock Price Forecast\">SI TIME (SITM), a U.S. semiconductor precision timing company<\/a> This is also clearly demonstrated in examples.<\/p>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"recommendation\">ASML Investment Opinion Conclusion<\/h2>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The investment opinion is Hold, and the confidence level is Medium. The investment period is based on 12 months.<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ASML possesses strong fundamentals, including an EUV and High-NA monopoly, benefits from AI demand, and an upward revision of guidance. However, as the stock price has surged approximately 1,251 TP3T over the past year, bringing the average analyst target price close to the current price, short-term upside potential is limited. A weighted expected return of approximately +6.81 TP3T corresponds to the Hold zone (0\u2013151 TP3T).<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From a long-term perspective, given its solid status as an essential gateway to advanced semiconductor manufacturing, a staggered buying strategy during corrections is effective. For new entries, a staggered and diversified approach is recommended, taking into account valuation concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"faq\">5 ASML Frequently Asked Questions<\/h2>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Q1. What is the 12-month target price for ASML?<\/h3>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Based on the base scenario, the $ is 1,950 (approx. 3,008,850 KRW), suggesting a bullish range of $2,345 (approx. 3,618,335 KRW) and a bearish range of $1,420 (approx. 2,191,060 KRW). With the current price of $1,794.62, the weighted expected return is approximately +6.8%, placing it in the Hold zone.<\/p>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Q2. Why is ASML classified as a beneficiary of the AI semiconductor market?<\/h3>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ASML is the only company in the world to mass-produce and supply EUV lithography equipment, which is essential for sub-7nm advanced processes. As TSMC, Samsung, and Intel increase investment in advanced processes due to a surge in demand for AI chips, orders for EUV and High-NA have increased, and revenue guidance for 2026 has been raised to \u20ac36\u201340 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Q3. Is ASML&#039;s current stock price overvalued or undervalued?<\/h3>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With a trailing P\/E of approximately 61x and a forward P\/E of approximately 38x, it significantly exceeds the market average. Depending on assumptions, the DCF fair value ranges from 1,550 to 2,050 for $, placing the current price in the fair to slightly overvalued range. While the monopolistic moat justifies the premium, short-term upside potential is limited.<\/p>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Q4. Which is more attractive to invest in, ASML or Applied Materials (AMAT)?<\/h3>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While AMAT handles a wide range of front-end process equipment such as deposition and etching, the lithography monopoly is ASML&#039;s exclusive domain. Although ASML holds the advantage in revenue growth rate, operating margins, and technological moat, its valuation is higher. The two stocks are complementary when diversifying investments in equipment stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Q5. What is the biggest risk when investing in ASML?<\/h3>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The biggest risk is the tightening of export restrictions by China. China accounts for 191 TP3T of Q1 revenue, so it will be directly hit by additional regulations. Next are a decline in orders due to the slowdown in AI capex, and valuation pressure resulting from a trailing P\/E of 61x and a surge of +1,251 TP3T at 52 weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"sources\">Sources<\/h2>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.asml.com\/en\/news\/press-releases\/2026\/q1-2026-financial-results\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">ASML Q1 2026 Financial Results (Company IR Press Release)<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/15\/asml-q1-2026-earnings-report.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC \u2014 ASML Q1 2026 Earnings and China Export Restrictions Report<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investing.com\/news\/transcripts\/earnings-call-transcript-asml-holdings-strong-q1-2026-results-boost-outlook-93CH-4614258\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">ASML Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (Investing.com)<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Disclaimer: This article is an analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investment decisions and responsibilities rest solely with the investor. Exchange rates, stock prices, and earnings figures are based on the analysis date and are subject to change thereafter.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u203b This article was written based on publicly available data with the assistance of AI research tools, and the content was reviewed by the author prior to publication. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ASML (ASML) 12-month baseline target price $1,950 (approx. 3,008,850 KRW) \u00b7 Investment opinion: Hold. We analyze the world&#039;s No. 1 semiconductor equipment company, which raised its 2026 revenue guidance to \u20ac36\u201340B driven by its dominance in EUV and High-NA lithography and demand for AI chips. Base exchange rate: 1 USD = 1,543 KRW (2026-06-26).<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":414,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[62,152],"tags":[185,50,5,186,55],"class_list":["post-399","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ai-datacenter","category-us-stock-analysis","tag-asml","tag-50","tag-5","tag-186","tag-stock-analysis"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/andyguy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/399","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/andyguy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/andyguy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/andyguy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/andyguy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=399"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/andyguy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/399\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":430,"href":"https:\/\/andyguy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/399\/revisions\/430"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/andyguy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/414"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/andyguy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=399"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/andyguy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=399"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/andyguy.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=399"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}